Morning Hunt Report - The Mist Clears, But Clarity Brings Caution
The morning mist has lifted across European markets, and what I see through my elven sight is a battlefield littered with exhausted warriors. With 9 out of 10 major indices bleeding red, the bearish winds are howling strong today - favoring gap-up fades and gap-down hunts aligned with this dominant downward current.
ALENO.PA (Enogia) - DISCARDED This French energy stock opened with a promising +7.3% gap to €5.60 but has already shown its hand with a ↑↑↓↓↓ pattern, retreating to €5.58. The exhaustion metrics tell a sobering tale - both upside (74%) and downside (84%) are largely spent, creating a total exhaustion of 158%. While the directional bias remains bullish at +0.35, the order flow shows sellers increasing with a -0.0684 slope. Most concerning is the price action relative to our technical anchors: currently trading just above the R1 pivot at €5.51, but the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at €5.19 suggests significant downside risk. Fighting against 9 bearish indices with an exhausted stock is not the elven way.
ALSAF.PA (Safe SA) - DISCARDED Safe SA gapped up +8.9% to €1.71 but has already collapsed back to €1.50 - sitting precisely at the session low and dangerously close to the S1 support at €1.42. The →↑→→→ pattern shows no clear directional conviction, while the neutral directional bias (+0.00) and increasing seller flow (-0.1353 slope) suggest this gap-up is being thoroughly rejected. With only 55% total exhaustion, there's plenty of room for more pain. This aligns perfectly with our bearish index environment favoring gap-up fades, but the entry opportunity has already passed - we needed to catch this fade at the €1.71 open, not chase it down here.
SSIT.LO (Seraphim Space) - DISCARDED The space investment trust presents the most intriguing but ultimately flawed setup. Despite gapping up +6.8% and currently trading at €115.71, above both the pivot (€103.18) and all Fibonacci levels, the ↑↓↓↓↓ pattern screams exhaustion. The numbers confirm this - 339% total exhaustion with both buyers (188%) and sellers (151%) completely spent. While the +0.34 directional bias suggests bulls maintain control, we're fighting against overwhelming bearish index pressure. The ATR of €4.70 offers decent volatility for moves, but at these extended levels above R1 at €109.64, we'd be buying the top of an exhausted move.
The Verdict Sometimes the clearest sight reveals that patience is the wisest action. All three watched stocks show signs of exhaustion or misalignment with our dominant bearish market environment. My active positions in EKOP.BR and HNSA.ST remain on watch for proper entry conditions that respect both technical levels and market flow.
The morning has spoken - today we observe and wait for the market to present us with properly aligned opportunities that flow with, rather than against, the prevailing winds.