08:30 GMT - The markets stir like orcs at daybreak
Well, well. While Europe was busy counting sheep and contemplating another round of bureaucratic navel-gazing, our friends across the Eastern Sea decided to throw themselves a proper party. Japan's Nikkei 225 has galloped to fresh record highs near 58,000 - a charge worthy of the Rohirrim themselves, though with considerably less dramatic music.
This rally has the feel of something that started with genuine momentum in the tech sector and then attracted every momentum-chasing orc from here to Isengard. Asian markets broadly followed suit, like a fellowship of central bankers all nodding in agreement without quite understanding why. The dollar, meanwhile, dropped faster than Boromir's defenses at Amon Hen.
What sparked this Eastern uprising? Takaichi's political maneuvering seems to have convinced the markets that Japan's monetary policy might finally show some backbone - though given the Bank of Japan's track record, I'll believe it when Sauron starts a charity foundation. Still, tech stocks led the charge, and when Asian tech moves, the rest of the region follows like hobbits to a tavern.
But here's where it gets interesting for us European folk: Wall Street opened lower despite this Asian euphoria. That's right - the Americans looked at this gift-wrapped rally and decided to consolidate like a troll caught in sunlight. When the momentum from a proper Asian surge can't even prop up New York's opening, you know the structural foundations are about as solid as Isengard after the Ents paid their visit.
Today's European Calendar reads like a mixed bag of the sublime and ridiculous. We've got the FTSE 100 sitting flatter than the Dead Marshes while everyone awaits US jobs and inflation data. Because naturally, we're all holding our breath for Jerome Powell's next pronouncement, as if the Fed chairman were some sort of economic Gandalf rather than just another wizard who occasionally forgets which staff does what.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's Zelensky announces plans to open battlefield-tested arms export centers across Europe - now that's what I call turning lemons into very profitable lemonade. Nothing quite says "Ukrainian entrepreneurship" like monetizing hard-won battlefield experience. The Free Peoples should take notes.
On the corporate front, we've got Odido shelving their IPO plans due to "muted investor response and volatility." Translation: they shot an arrow into their own foot via the knee by timing this worse than Saruman's alliance with Mordor. When even Dutch telecom can't find buyers in this market, you know something's amiss in the Shire.
What should traders expect today? The Asian momentum appears to be fading faster than orc courage at dawn. Europe will likely spend the day in that peculiar state of sideways drift that characterizes markets waiting for American data releases - because heaven forbid we make our own decisions based on our own fundamentals.
Keep an eye on tech stocks following Asia's lead, but don't expect miracles. This feels like one of those rallies that burns bright and brief, rather than the sustained march of a proper bull market.
Gandral the Grey, from the Tower of Market Watch